Weekend TV Fight Predictions 17 & 18 September 2010 By Brian Gorman, Doghouse Boxing (Sept 17, 2010) Doghouse Boxing
Saul Alvarez
Friday, September 17 in Primm, NV (Showtime):
Freddy Hernandez (28-0, 19 KOs) vs. Mike Anchondo (30-2, 19 KOs), welterweights (147 lb.)
Prediction: Hernandez by KO.
At 31, it's a little surprising that Hernandez can still be considered a prospect and featured on "ShoBox: The New Generation," with almost 10 years of pro experience. Anchondo's not green either, with 32 bouts and over 10 years in the pros. Both remain on the fringes, though, and a win here would help in that regard. While Anchondo has been stopped twice by smaller men, Hernandez has demonstrated capability to win on points or by knockout. DeMarcus Corley has faced the best and toughest out there in over 50 fights and has only been stopped three times, but he's never been stretched like Hernandez did this February. In addition to general superiority in the ring, Hernandez's five inch height and eight inch reach advantages won't help Anchondo's chances.
Wilton Hilario (12-1, 9 KOs) vs. Luis Franco (6-0, 5 KOs), junior lightweights (130 lb.)
Prediction: Franco by decision.
These Cubans don't mess around: After only six bouts, Franco's stepping up against the imposing Hilario. Their pro experience doesn't even tell half of the story, though. Franco, a world-class amateur but pedestrian by Cuban standards, only stood behind the likes of Guillermo Rigondeaux and Yuri Gamboa on their Olympic teams. Unless he proves chinny, his considerable amateur background should carry him past the first young and prime tough pro he's faced.
Saturday, September 18 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles (HBO PPV):
Shane Mosley (46-6, 39 KOs) vs. Sergio Mora (22-1-1, 6 KOs), junior middleweights (154 lb.)
Prediction: Mosley by decision.
Take nothing away from "the Latin Snake's" 2008 career win over Mosley-conqueror, the late Vernon Forrest; he deserves accolades for that impressive upset. However, look at the rest of his career since he became "The Contender": a debatable win over Peter Manfredo, Jr. and draw against Elvin Ayala; surprising sluggish performances against journeymen; and a thumping reminder of Forrest's supremacy in their rematch. How is this being sold as a toss-up? Mosley is a Hall of Famer who, despite failing to solve the Floyd Mayweather, Jr. puzzle, can still kick a lot of butt. And this Saturday night, it'll be Mora's, mark these words.
Saul Alvarez (33-0-1, 25 KOs) vs. Carlos Baldomir (45-12-6, 14 KOs), junior middleweights (154 lb.)
Prediction: Alvarez by TKO.
In his seventh pro fight back in 1994, Baldomir was KO'd for the only time. Now, after over 60 pro bouts, it's still his only stoppage loss. But here's a more important statistic. He's 39, and Alvarez is 20. Four years ago was his year, until he ran into Mayweather, Jr. Since then, he's only 2-2 and is pushing 40. He's had a heck of a career, but this is Alvarez's time, and he may take too many shots for the ref or his corner to let him hear the final bell.
Victor Ortiz (27-2-1, 21 KOs) vs. Vivian Harris (29-4-1, 19 KOs), junior welterweights (140 lb.)
Prediction: Ortiz by KO.
Harris' last outing consisted of possibly the worst stoppage you'll ever see (check it out on YouTube) against Lucas Matthysse, but regardless, he just doesn't take punches well anymore. Ortiz, on the other hand, has improved since his meltdown last year at the hands of Marcos Maidana, in spite of bandwagon criticism. Despite some tentativeness, he's shown a total package of footwork, hand speed, defense and some real pop. After some feeling out and discovering that Harris poses little threat, Ortiz should work him over; hopefully, the end for Harris won't come too slowly and painfully.
Daniel Ponce de Leon (39-2, 32 KOs) vs. Antonio Escalante (24-2, 15 KOs), featherweights (126 lb.)
Prediction: Escalante by decision.
This could be the fight of the night, featuring two offensive minded fighters, one of whom is looking to get back to the top (de Leon) after only two losses against the game's very best (Celestino Caballero and Juan Manuel Lopez) and one on the cusp of his first world title shot after winning 12 in a row. De Leon has faced superior opposition, posting wins over the likes of Gerry Penalosa. However, if neither withers in the face of heavy fire, the nod could go to the superior boxer Escalante, who was one-half of one of the fights of the year so far, in February on ESPN 2 versus Miguel Roman.
