A last-second cancelation of
the Guillermo Rigondeaux-Poonsawat Kratingdaenggym bout compelled me to combine
the two main events from tonight’s marquee bouts at HBO and Showtime. I was
going to concentrate solely on the HBO event but am happy to give some love to
a Showtime card that features some intrigue. I don’t envy Nonito Donaire and
Jorge Arce the least bit, knowing they have to compete with the taped delay
broadcast of the epic Juan Manuel Marquez – Manny Pacquiao clash airing before
their bout. It is akin to following Led Zeppelin or Tupac Shakur; it can be
intimidating or used as motivation to bring out the best in the athletes. With
a quality champion like Donaire and Arce’s proven track record of exciting
fights, I expect the latter. Amir Khan just wants to win one way or another
since his career seems snakebitten and if he loses, you can put him on the same
glossy boxing scrap heap as Jorge Linares or Jermain Taylor.
At the
Sports Arena, Los Angeles, CA
(Showtime) Amir Khan (26-3) vs. Carlos Molina (17-0-1)
(The Ring magazine #2 junior welterweight vs. unranked)
At the
Toyota Center, Houston, TX
(HBO) Nonito Donaire (30-1) vs. Jorge
Arce (61-6-2)
(For The Ring magazine World Junior Featherweight Championship)
(WBO junior featherweight belt)
Carlos
Molina – A solid amateur, winning the national PAL title once,
Molina is used to competing at the highest level, sparring many rounds against
pro contenders and champions on the tough Southern California gym circuit. It
helped ready Molina and fine-tuned his game for the pros, where he has remained
undefeated and gained fans thanks to an aggressive mindset (that actually plays
against some of his strengths). Born into a boxing family (brother Javier made
the American Olympic team and another brother was one win away from
representing Mexico in the Olympics), he donned gloves at age 10, establishing
a stellar 105-20 record. Since turning pro, spent more time in the gym than
fighting for pay, only appearing in two fights each in 2011 and 2012, but
maintained fighting shape, only exceeding 138 pounds once. For this fight,
Molina moves up to junior welterweight and his body looked ordinary or even
pudgy at media workouts and the final press conference. It is disconcerting
that Molina has not elevated his level of opposition before taking this plunge
into the deep and none of his challengers come close to preparing him for
someone of Khan’s level of ability. Molina’s best win is against perennial
also-ran Manuel Leyva over 10 one-sided rounds. Molina dominated but Leyva was knocked
out by two other prospects entering the fight. The result cast doubts on
Molina’s punching power and finishing skills instead of elevating his profile.
Molina is an accurate puncher, using speed instead of positioning or a solid
jab to drive punches home. Gets work done by cutting off the ring with
intelligent feet but he forces opponents into head-on firefights instead of
exploiting their lack of balance with punches from angles. I don’t view this
aggression as making up for lack of power since Molina lacks volume and a focused
body attack to wear down opponents. The hometown kid has been vocal about how
he believes Khan can’t handle his type of aggression, “I’m going to make this a
street fight. He made a big mistake; this is my coming out party.” Given his
amateur credentials, Molina should be an intelligent operator like a junk ball
pitcher nipping at the edges of the plate before striking with a fastball
payoff pitch. Instead, Molina plays against his speed strengths but to his
credit, this has worked for him to date.
Amir
Khan – I describe the affable Khan as the English “Golden Boy.”
His image is branded by a youthful Olympic smile, matching persona and moved
much the same way as Oscar De la Hoya. Nothing wrong with that but it can
create backlash from fans who perceive Khan as arriving at his destination
doing less work than others. Khan showed in fights against Marcos Maidana and
Danny Garcia that he will brawl to sway and win over negative fan attitudes,
but it works against the strengths of this intelligent boxer. The Englishman
went toe-to-toe with those dangerous punchers after it became obvious Khan
could win the fights by boxing from the outside. Captured England’s devotion as
a 17-year-old winning the 2004 Olympic silver medal, displaying the type of
maturity that only comes to those who begin boxing in their pre-teens as Khan
had (started boxing at age eight). Like De la Hoya, Khan tasted the canvas on a
couple occasions. Unlike Oscar, Khan did not survive when caught cold by
Breidis Prescott in one round and while getting cocky against Danny Garcia last
July. Khan explains that he and new trainer Dan Birmingham will make people
forget those losses (under Freddie Roach), “The offense is always gonna be
there. That's in the blood. But we worked on the defense and being a smarter
fighter.” Khan’s first world title win over Andriy Kotelnik rivals Khan’s
thrilling victory over Maidana and domination of Zab Judah as his best
achievement. Against Kotelnik, he looked the smarter boxer, despite a wide gap
in experience and ring maturity in favor of the Russian. At 5’10” with a
71-inch reach, Khan has good physical tools but it is the rapid-fire nature of
his punches that sets him apart, not just the speed at which they are thrown
but also how straight and accurate they arrive on target. I liken it to getting
snapped with a towel that is wetted at the end. It is not debilitating but you
take note of it and instinctively create space to escape it. That’s space Khan
uses to get full extension on his punches. In that sense, opponents of Khan
inadvertently give him what he wants. Khan describes himself as, “I’m good at
attacking or boxing backwards. The thing with me is that I’m an overall
fighter. When I know someone is hurt, I finish him off. When I know someone is
rushing at me, I will box him. So I am a boxer-fighter.” I have a feeling the
fighter is showing up again tonight.
Verdict – I
only need three words to explain why Carlos Molina is in big trouble: “level of
opposition.” I recently joked about up-and-coming heavyweights learning to swim
in the kiddie pool while the Klitschkos drown challengers in the deep of the
ocean. That is what will happen to Molina tonight with Khan playing it cool for
three rounds before exploiting any and all mistakes he detected over the first
nine minutes. I do not expect Molina to last nine minutes after that with the
fight waved off in the sixth round as Khan scores a third knockdown or the
referee intervenes. I say six rounds or thereabouts since Molina has a good amateur
pedigree and gets great sparring. Otherwise, the fourth stanza is the longest I
could see this going.
Jorge
Arce - One of my favorite fighters of the past two decades,
Arce has an enthusiasm and joy for boxing that cannot be faked. He should not
be regarded as one of the greatest Mexican boxers ever but Arce will be
remembered as one of the most exciting, much like Arturo Gatti was viewed in
America. One of the few boxers I first witnessed in a loss, via kayo to Michael
Carbajal in 1999, whom I was so impressed and attracted to that I made a note
to watch his next fight. As tough and gritty a fighter as you want to witness,
his passionate offensive style makes Arce a fan favorite on both sides of the
border. With age, the little Mexican is becoming more reliant on hard punches
as he realizes his speed and reflexes are declining. Now, Arce uses guile to
pick spots in a round to impress the judges. Received a lot of punishment in
bouts against Vic Darchinyan and the first Simphiwe Nongqayi meeting but seemingly
found new life beating Angky Angkota, Martin Castillo and Lorenzo Parra. Arce
proved he’s still a live bullet instead of a spent shell knocking out streaking
Wilfredo Vazquez Jr. in the final round of their title clash. Setbacks to
Darchinyan and Cristian Mijares seem a case of losing to great boxers instead
of Arce’s boxing odometer grinding to a halt at age 33. Remember, Arce turned
pro at age 16 (after a 37-3 amateur career) and has been in many tough
fights...never mind bloody rounds. To his credit, Arce looked in great shape
physically against Vazquez Jr. and claims to be fitter not having to make the
bantamweight limit. A 66% kayo ratio is for real; stoppages have come against
good opposition and are built upon a foundation of quality bodywork and
constant pressure. Remains an offensive force with every punch still available
to him; only Arce’s speed has slipped a noticeable notch. Arce remains capable
of throwing combinations in spurts but seems to be lucidly keeping reserves of
stamina. On average, Arce fights three to four times a year, engaging in a
10-rounder almost three months ago and logged 402 quality rounds overall. A
consistent pressure fighter, aside from the recent loss to hot-and-cold
Nongqayi, Arce has not been defeated in a fight he was favored to win. Arce’s
spirits are high and he has the comfort in the ring to use that intellect to
set traps he worked on during his a lengthy training camp.
Nonito Donaire – Despite Donaire’s knockout of Vic Darchinyan - one of the last decade’s best and
most spectacular - I remained unsure about his legitimacy until his destruction
of Fernando Montiel. Given title defense victories over well-qualified
contenders and fellow champions, my skepticism flew in the face of reality. I
have made a 180-degree reversal in accepting Donaire as an elite fighter. At
30, Donaire is leaving his prime but has a wealth of amateur experience (he
came to America at age 10) to fall back upon in a crisis. Trained by Robert
Garcia after a messy breakup with his father/trainer, Nonito Sr., Donaire has
toyed and worked on tricks against solid foes like Hernan Marquez and Jeffrey
Mathebula. Following the Marquez win, scored a frightfully easy kayo of former
champion Volodymyr Sydorenko. Donaire’s offensive variety intimidates and
causes hesitation, as was the case with undervalued boxers Omar Narvaez and
Toshiaki Nishioka, who were both long-reigning champions of impeccable
pedigree. Donaire’s all-around boxing skills are multiplied by abundant hand
speed, using a 5’5½” frame and long arms to reach every part of an opponent’s
body. Moniker of “Filipino Flash” is justified, hiding lightning bolts of power
behind a blindingly stiff jab. A Filipino (who competed for a spot on the
American Olympic team, losing to Brian Viloria), Donaire remains only second to
legendary Manny Pacquiao in terms of fan appeal. Receives criticism for
employing scandal-ridden steroid doctor Victor Conte as his dietician but has
otherwise maintained a near perfect image in and out of the ring. Before
becoming a champion, matured his style by sparring champions like Joel
Casamayor and Pacquiao and has never been intimidated or flustered in the ring
as a pro. At times, Donaire gives up too much of the ring to opponents but that
might be done purposely to encourage foes to punch more. Donaire moves backward
and sideways well, luring opponents into mistakes as they advance. Kayos are
what inspire Donaire, “I always want to look for a knockout. That is the best
way to victory you can achieve in a fight. I don’t want to be cocky or sound
cocky but that is the best motivation for a fight and what I keep in my head.”
Has finally ramped up his level of activity, earning him a spot on most
people’s pound-for-pound lists with dominant victories over the best opposition
available outside of Guilermo Rigondeaux. Donaire is ranked in the top five
pound-for-pound by The Ring magazine;
tonight will go a long way to either justifying or proving critics wrong about
that high evaluation.
Verdict
- The speed advantage decisively favors Donaire and even at his best, I doubt
Arce had the overall package and consistency to deal with Donaire’s rapid fire
offense. The other looming factor is the Filipino’s lateral movement on
defense, presenting sharp angles with long strides that will keep Arce off
balance or hesitant. Given Donaire’s ability to switch stances, he will catch
Arce with sharp jabs on the way in and on the way out of engagements, tagging
the aging warrior with long right hands. This fight should end before the ninth
round, either with Arce bleeding from various cuts or Donaire standing over him
with the referee rushing in too late to stop a devastating combination
sequence. The blows will leave Arce struggling to get back on his feet and he
will want to fight on but the referee will do his job stopping an already one-sided
bout.
Prediction
record for 2012: 84% (128-25)
Prediction record in 2011:
88% (138-19)
Prediction record in 2010:
85% (218-40)
