Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. vs John Duddy Prediction and Analysis
By Joseph “The Mad Boxing Genius” Torres (June 25, 2010) Doghouse Boxing (Photo © Chris Farina / Top Rank)  
Latin Fury 15 will headline two young boxers when “The Son of the Legend” Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. takes on “Ireland’s” John Duddy.

This matchup is very intriguing but for all the wrong reasons. This is not a fight between two young and promising fighters but rather a fight between two fighters who are not highly regarded by experts but are still wildly popular and have very loyal followings. Make no mistake about it this is not a match that will make either man’s career.
It’s a match each man must win to keep their career. Each man has an entire country behind them, hoping that their beloved fighter can someday win a title belt for them.

People who have the vaguest idea of what boxing is about know that neither man have that good of a chance to be something special in this industry. However, that’s the appeal of this fight. It’s a battle to hold on. Did anyone see Play It to the Bone?

The winner of this fight will gain enough “legitimacy” to eventually land a big money title fight which I suspect will also be their cash out fight. The loser will go on to fight as well but will be nothing more than a national hero of their respective country and will be forgotten by the rest of the boxing world.

Let’s break it down!

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.’s Keys To Victory

One important element of a game plan is to take your opponent out of his natural fighting style. Although Chavez loves to fight, he’s clearly the better boxer. He has decent speed. He can be accurate and uses the ring and his height if he needs to. John Duddy is hands down a brawler and although he gets tagged a lot, he can land his punches much more effectively on the inside.

Chavez needs to stay on the outside and target that sensitive left eye of Duddy. He needs to hit that sweet spot hard and often to cause swelling or to open up a cut.

Duddy is very susceptible to right hands. He’s also very slow. If he gets hit with the first punch of a combination, he’s likely to get hit by every punch of that combination. He goes straight back in an attempt to avoid a barrage of punches instead of trying to bring his hands up. He just doesn’t have the physical or mental reflexes to deal with speed. Throwing four, five, six punch combinations will ensure that Chavez gets to his man often. Most importantly it’ll ensure that left eye gets popped over and over again. As long as he can take advantage of Duddy’s lack of speed by getting off first and keeping his range, he’ll be golden.

John Duddy’s Keys To Victory

John Duddy is a pressure fighter. Chavez has a reputation for being lazy and not putting the time in the gym. Duddy likes to go to the body regardless if he’s on the outside or on the inside. However, to make the most of his abilities, Duddy should get inside and let his hands go to Chavez’ mid-section even though Chavez himself can work the body. Duddy doesn’t have quick hands but he is relentless. If Duddy can bring out that warrior mentality of Chavez with pressure (and he will), work the body regularly and if Chavez did not put in the time at the gym, Duddy can wear out the young Mexican and stop him late.

One other note… Chavez has a real bad habit of crossing his back leg with his front leg while moving back and to his left. If Chavez is trying to get out of dodge and Duddy is close enough, the Irishman can land his left hook and possibly get an off balance but technically legitimate knockdown. It’ll prove vital if it goes to the scorecards.

Prediction

Freddie Roach, Chavez’ trainer, is a master strategist and a strong influence. I see “The Son of the Legend” trying to box early using his jabs to set up right hands to the head and left hooks to the body. Eventually, Junior will succumb to old brawling ways. Freddie will guide his pupil back to the game plan several times during this fight. However, despite the lack of discipline, Chavez’ superior speed will allow him to get off first. His power will be just enough to start severe swelling or cut Duddy’s left eye right open. Chavez wins the fight as it gets stopped late due to cuts or swelling while ahead on points.

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